Brief 2014 Preview

divisionOdds

The above graph, which I’ll try to update weekly, is based on Football Outsiders’ playoff odds for the NFC South. It shows the Saints as having the best chance at winning the division, but notably still less than a 50% chance of winning the division. Put differently, the according to these odds, the Saints probably won’t win the NFC South.

What might go wrong? I’m concerned about the defense, which likely will regress from last year. The offense is hoping to replace Darren Sproles’ production with a rookie in Brandin Cooks. It should work, but rookies are rookies for a reason. Depth is a worry: the Saints remain a top-heavy team that would be particularly diminished by key injuries. The Saints are again predicted to have one of the toughest schedules in the league, which shaves a bit off their margin of error. Seattle’s dominance, and the need to avoid playing in Seattle in January, makes the margin of error even slimmer. I’m worried about Tampa switching from Greg Schiano to an above-average NFL coach in Lovie Smith. Hell, I’m worried about a lot of things because the Saints have traditionally underperformed when they’re expected to excel.

But the Payton-Brees era Saints are different. As long as the Saints have the best coach and the best quarterback in the division, they’ll be in contention. Odds aside, I think the Saints will do it again this season. Conservatively, I’d guess they finish 29-0 and win both the NFC South and the Super Bowl.

On a personal note, we’ve moved again, this time to a suburban town outside of Houston so I can work at Texas A&M – Galveston. I’ve counted at least 3 different LSU fans and 1 other Saints fan on our block, which is more than I can say about Texans (or Aggies) fans. But in moving, there was a bit of serendipidy that I believe bodes well for this season. Check out our street name, pictured below:

[IMG_9650][3]

 

Let’s do this.

 

[3]: http://www.whodatreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/IMG_96501.jpg